Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.475257 0.553512 0.637922 0.735415 0.844581 0.962715 1.099878
2025-03-23 0.362374 0.464358 0.582635 0.728719 0.903000 1.102929 1.348210
2025-03-30 0.258008 0.365326 0.499382 0.676332 0.900690 1.172474 1.523052
2025-04-06 0.189241 0.297072 0.442280 0.646840 0.921653 1.271758 1.744291
2025-04-13 0.136252 0.238939 0.388571 0.613762 0.934053 1.362334 1.965529
2025-04-20 0.103958 0.203533 0.360187 0.611057 0.986962 1.511788 2.278996
2025-04-27 0.077141 0.170078 0.328565 0.598946 1.025560 1.646633 2.587268
2025-05-04 0.058936 0.146491 0.308119 0.600978 1.085720 1.818726 2.964526
2025-05-11 0.044389 0.125297 0.287390 0.599319 1.140293 1.988549 3.354497
2025-05-18 0.030446 0.100008 0.253187 0.568463 1.143699 2.081225 3.638723
2025-05-25 0.019872 0.077575 0.218534 0.530028 1.128795 2.143380 3.881735
2025-06-01 0.014035 0.064594 0.200434 0.520096 1.162795 2.288184 4.266551
2025-06-08 0.009321 0.052192 0.180600 0.504438 1.187685 2.426190 4.662288
2025-06-15 0.006954 0.046285 0.175394 0.519899 1.275153 2.681716 5.274103
2025-06-22 0.004265 0.036265 0.155135 0.496494 1.282187 2.795706 5.657032
2025-06-29 0.002711 0.029571 0.141893 0.487027 1.316897 2.963834 6.147064
2025-07-06 0.001610 0.023501 0.127734 0.471721 1.336876 3.106360 6.602978
2025-07-13 0.001071 0.020287 0.122269 0.478802 1.407892 3.353156 7.263101
2025-07-20 0.000650 0.016882 0.114216 0.476559 1.457205 3.561626 7.867188
2025-07-27 0.000414 0.014639 0.109925 0.484761 1.532812 3.829466 8.599081
2025-08-03 0.000247 0.012483 0.104710 0.488833 1.598970 4.083326 9.320080
2025-08-10 0.000109 0.009495 0.092772 0.467067 1.596527 4.193415 9.772248
2025-08-17 0.000037 0.006854 0.079967 0.437773 1.569444 4.247912 10.118944